An interesting split in the forecasts for next Monday and Tuesday.
As of 4 pm on Wednesday afternoon Environment Canada is predicting a high of 2°C and a low of 0°C for Monday with flurries or rain. For Tuesday they call for 30% chance of flurries with the high temperature of only 1°C and a low temperature of -2°C.
Now we look over to the Weather Network and they have highs of 5°C and 8°C with lows of 2°C and 1°C for Monday and Tuesday with all the precipitation coming down as rain.
So for both days the range of temperatures in the forecasts don't even overlap, I guess we will find out next week who was correct (or maybe it will end up somewhere in the middle as it often does).
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3 comments:
Which forecast is typically correct? Which do you rely on more? I follow both closely, and they are often SO different. I find Weather Network more optimistic, so I tend to believe them. ;) (Oh, I also follow the UW weather station of course!).
Frank - This is an excellent case illustrating that different computer models suggest completely different weather scenarios in the longer range. Confidence in any one particular forecast for then is generally quite low, and the forecasts will likely change as early next week draws closer. This often happens when the weather pattern across the area is undergoing a change.
To respond to Melonie's questions: About 5 years ago I did a quick study that compared the Environment Canada and Weather Network forecast and found them to have pretty much the same accuracy statistics overall out to 5 days.
However, that was before EC started putting out 7 day forecasts. Weather station volunteer Eric Yardley has been putting together a up to date dataset of weather predictions for the area.
Once I have some time I'll be able to examine what forecasts then to give better results for our area.
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